Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Will He or Won't He?

The new afternoon advisory from the National Hurricane Center is in and the forecast is still looking bad for the middle Texas coast.  The new Hurricane Center track  calls for Ike to move inland along the middle coast, but a little further north compared to this morning's forecast.  This point of landfall is expected to be near San Antonio Bay, or about half way between Corpus Christi and Matagorda.  This track places the Lower Colorado River on the dangerous right-front side of the hurricane, the region with very high winds, extremely heavy rain and tornadoes.  In addition, most of today's forecast solutions, including the official track from the Hurricane Center, now call for Ike to turn north once it moves inland.  The core of the weakening hurricane is forecast to track into Central Texas Saturday night, reaching a position west of the Dallas/Fort Worth area Sunday afternoon.   On this projected path, tropical storm force to near hurricane force winds along with very heavy rains will be possible over much of Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country late Saturday and Saturday night. (from Bob Rose's blog, Meteorologist-Lower Colorado River Authority)


We shall see.  I'm trying to figure out what plants to try to protect, how to make sure the trampoline doesn't flip and where to put the chickens if the winds pick up.  As with most hurricane forecasts, anything could happen between today and Saturday.

Update as of Thursday, September 11th: It looks as though Central Texas will be spared the brunt of the storm.  It has moved more toward Houston and Lousiana.  That means that Austin will not be on the eastern edge of the incoming winds.  We will still get rain, but not the 50-70 mph sustained winds that we were expecting.  Pray for those still in its path.


Ike Projected Path

7 comments:

  1. Ack! No, no, no...this is not good. I will think blustery thoughts today and divert that storm energy back to the sea. (ah, if only i had *that* power...super hero Storm Blower Danni here, I'll chase all your storms away) (i've been around my boys too long - lol)
    What *will* you do with your chickens? Garage, perhaps? Wow - so much to think about - good luck, Cee cee...

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  2. Thanks Danni! It's not that we can't use the rain, but not 12 inches in an hour or something. Certainly not the 70mph winds either. Last time we got wind like that, our neighbor lost a 300 year old Live Oak--it was sickening to see it just tipped over with roots everywhere.
    Chickens will end up in the garage. I recently bought one of those dog enclosure fences; I'll set it up in the garage with a tarp and wood shavings as the 'flooring'. That way, it's way easier to clean up.

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  3. That's *exactly* the set-up I've got, too...I almost wrote it to you but thought I was being too specific :-). I've been using a few of those portable dog enclosures for my temp chicken run for months now and had that in the back of my mind for emergency set-ups in our lower garage. My panels are only 3' high, though, so I cover them with deer netting to keep chickens in and other stuff out. :-)
    Ugh, we recently lost (Oregon, that is) its oldest sitka spruce tree due to high winds. It was a tourist attraction that now is no more. very sad. I'll be thinking about you!

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  4. Yikes! I now actually know someone in the path of a Hurricane. How close to the coast are you? Do you have enough supplies if you lose power? Are you nervous? I am.

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  5. Oh no, CeeCee!
    I was born in Corpus Christi, in the Naval Hospital, during a hurricane. It's been a while since that area of Texas got hit by a big one.
    And I hope it won't be this weekend either.
    Hopefully it will slow down or hit farther into unpopulated areas of Mexico, instead.
    I hope your winds won't be so bad as to uproot trees either.

    What fun...chickens in the garage.
    If you remember, we kept our 13 chickens in the garage from October until Christmas Day! We were so far behind in building their coop with all the snow, wind and cold weather we had.
    A few days in the garage is fine, but 3 months was looong! haha
    Talk about dust, dander, feathers and poo! ack.

    We used those Super XLT child play yards, two snapped together, with netting over top. Then I placed cardboard underneath, so that the garage floor wouldn't get nasty.

    Do ya know...I still find feathers in our garage. haha!

    Hang in there. I'll be praying and thinking calming, anti-storm thoughts for you.

    ~Lisa

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  6. SC, We are 200 miles from the coast, but what happens is we get the winds and rains. If you look at the circle of a hurricane, it's spinning counter-clockwise. If you are east of the eye of a storm, it spins most of it's rain and wind right into you. While the wind speeds are high, the actual movement of the entire storm is only 8 mph right now. It just lingers. Imagine a terrible thunderstorm that just won't go away.

    Lisa, I always start my chicks in the garage in a refrigerator box (on its side). It's a ginormous mess, but I love it. My group now, will probably only have to spend one night (Saturday) in the garage. I have bird netting to toss over the top so nochicken decides to have a look around the messy garage.

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  7. Yay....I woke up this morning thinking about you and Ike...I'm really glad to hear that it has veered out of your way. I was in Houston a few years back on business - I feel so badly for all those folks. The news headlines are horrifying.
    No chicken fieldtrip to the garage now for your guys!

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