The new afternoon advisory from the National Hurricane Center is in and the forecast is still looking bad for the middle Texas coast. The new Hurricane Center track calls for Ike to move inland along the middle coast, but a little further north compared to this morning's forecast. This point of landfall is expected to be near San Antonio Bay, or about half way between Corpus Christi and Matagorda. This track places the Lower Colorado River on the dangerous right-front side of the hurricane, the region with very high winds, extremely heavy rain and tornadoes. In addition, most of today's forecast solutions, including the official track from the Hurricane Center, now call for Ike to turn north once it moves inland. The core of the weakening hurricane is forecast to track into Central Texas Saturday night, reaching a position west of the Dallas/Fort Worth area Sunday afternoon. On this projected path, tropical storm force to near hurricane force winds along with very heavy rains will be possible over much of Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country late Saturday and Saturday night. (from Bob Rose's blog, Meteorologist-Lower Colorado River Authority)
We shall see. I'm trying to figure out what plants to try to protect, how to make sure the trampoline doesn't flip and where to put the chickens if the winds pick up. As with most hurricane forecasts, anything could happen between today and Saturday.
Update as of Thursday, September 11th: It looks as though Central Texas will be spared the brunt of the storm. It has moved more toward Houston and Lousiana. That means that Austin will not be on the eastern edge of the incoming winds. We will still get rain, but not the 50-70 mph sustained winds that we were expecting. Pray for those still in its path.